On Wisconsin

Make that 9 wins and counting for Barack Obama. The senator from Illinois scored a convincing win over Hillary Clinton in the Land of Beer and Cheese and tonight’s exit polling shows the continuation of a set of trends that have to be very worrying for the Clinton camp. Nick Beaudrot of Cogitamus breaks down the numbers (and offers a snarky preview of the Clinton campaign spin):

“As I read it, Obama won women. He won voters without a college degree. He tied high school graduates with no college education at all. He won voters age 50-64. He won voters who make less than $50,000. He won voters for whom the economy is the most important issue. He won voters who have a negative view of the economy. He won self-identified Democrats. He won white voters. He basically tied White Catholics. He won urban, suburban, and rural voters. He tied the late deciders. He tied union members. But Wisconsin doesn’t count, because there are a bunch of dirty hippies in Madison.”
The above dovetails with the results from last week’s “Potomac Primary” in which Obama started cutting into Clinton’s core support groups: women, blue collar workers and Latinos.Now, while Obama is almost certainly the front runner going into Ohio and Texas on March 5th, Clinton has long maintained double digit leads in both states. However, with Obama winning nine (and most likely ten contests in a row as Hawaii, the state of his birth, comes in later tonight), Clinton can’t be feeling great about her “firewall” states. Obama is within 9 points in Ohio and 5 points in Texas. Generally speaking, Obama’s prospects brighten when he has substantial time to campaign, so the next fourteen days are going to seem like an eternity to Hillary Clinton. She basically needs to pull out wins of at least 10 points or more in both states to keep this from getting out of hand. Anything less than that and there might be some calls for her to concede before the primary in Pennsylvania in April. Time and momentum are working against her.
I’m cautious by nature and I feel good about Obama’s chances going forward, but it’s politics and you never know what might happen.

		
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~ by uvasig on February 20, 2008.

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